2020-08-28
621 
Global Ship Orders May Take Decade to Mendas Crisis Builds
By Krystal Chia and Annie Lee There’shardly anyone buying new ships, with orders plunging to a 20-year low due to apotent combination of uncertainty over environmental regulations, the economicfallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a lack of financing.
海运圈聚焦8月28日讯 几乎没有人购买新船，由于环境法规的不确定性、新型冠状病毒大流行带来的经济影响以及资金缺乏等因素的综合作用，订单骤降至20年来的最低点。
“The IMO has brought in significant,ambitious and important targets around emissions,” said Clarksons Research’smanaging director Stephen Gordon. It remains unclear the exact policies andregulations that might be introduced and what technology will be adopted, hesaid. Ships are long-term investments, and buyers run the risk that theirvessels will become obsolete.
克拉克森研究公司董事总经理Stephen Gordon表示，"国际海事组织已经制定了重大的、雄心勃勃的、重要的排放目标，目前仍不清楚可能出台的具体政策和法规，以及将采用什么技术。船舶是长期投资，买家面临着船舶被淘汰的风险。
The global shipping industry is in themidst of one of its biggest changes in a generation after stricter environmentalrules kicked in at the start of the year. Ship owners face paying more forcleaner fuel, retrofitting ships with pollution-reducing scrubbers or evenordering new vessels. Compounding the uncertainty has been Covid-19, which hasupended supply chains and stalled trade flows.
今年年初更严格的环保规则开始实施后，全球航运业正处于一代人中最大的变革之中。船东面临着为清洁燃料支付更多费用，为船舶加装减少污染的洗涤器，甚至订购新船。Covid-19事件使这种不确定性更加复杂，它扰乱了供应链，使贸易流动停滞。
“Covid-19 has become the most immediateissue,” Gordon said. While challenges due to lockdown measures are easing, “theeconomic uncertainty, disruption to trade, and volatility in freight rates”caused by the virus are driving orders lower.
"Covid-19已经成为最直接的问题。"Gordon说。虽然封锁措施带来的挑战正在缓解，但病毒造成的 "经济不确定性、贸易中断和运费波动 "正在推动订单下降。
Demand growth for containers is expected tofall this year due to Covid-19, according to A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, whichpredicts a return to 2019 volumes in the early part of 2021. The world’slargest container line ordered only eight vessels in the second quarter,putting its orderbook-to-fleet ratio at 9.4%. Globally, the rate is about 8%,meaning orders for new ships are at a two-decade low, according to Clarksons’Gordon.
据A.P.Moller-Maersk A/S预测，由于Covid-19的影响，今年集装箱的需求增长将下降，预计在2021年初将恢复到2019年的数量。这家全球最大的集装箱公司在第二季度仅订造了8艘船，使其订单量与船队的比率为9.4%。据Clarksons的Gordon称，在全球范围内，该比率约为8%，这意味着新船订单量处于二十年来的最低点。
“The virus is a further hit to demandthat’s already barely even there,” said Rahul Kapoor, head of commodityanalytics & research, maritime & trade at IHS Markit. “With thepandemic’s hit to economic activity and supply chains, ordering new ships isnow the lowest priority for companies. They’re concentrating on just trying tomaintain profit margins.” The virus has also delayed the completion ofshipbuilding projects, he said.
"IHS Markit的大宗商品分析与研究、海事与贸易主管Rahul Kapoor表示，"病毒是对已经勉强的需求的进一步打击，随着疫情对经济活动和供应链的打击，订购新船现在是企业的最低优先级。他们只专注于努力维持利润率。" 他说，病毒还推迟了造船项目的完成时间。
Finance Crunch
Shipowners are also lacking the finances tomake purchases, according to Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipbrokerBanchero Costa & Co.
财务危机
船舶经纪公司Banchero Costa & Co.的研究主管Ralph Leszczynski称，船东也缺乏资金进行采购。
“Most shipping markets are coming from arelatively poor decade, 2009 to 2019, in terms of earnings so most shipownersdo not have that much cash in their pockets,” he said. “External finance isalso in short supply as banks are now largely steering clear off shipping afterthe defaults they suffered after 2008.”
他表示，"大多数航运市场都是从2009年到2019年这10年收益相对较差的时期走过来的，所以大多数船东口袋里没有那么多现金，外部融资也很紧缺，因为银行在2008年后遭遇违约后，银行现在基本上对航运业避而远之。"
Still, fewer orders and slower fleet growthwill likely bolster shipping rates. Lines are likely to continue to keepcapacity in check into 2021 to minimize the impact from slowing global trade,said IHS Markit’s Kapoor.
不过，订单减少和船队增长放缓仍将可能支撑运费。IHS Markit的Kapoor表示，船公司可能会继续控制运力到2021年，以尽量减少全球贸易放缓的影响。
That’s already translating to increasingcosts for transporting goods by ocean liner, with one benchmark oftrans-Pacific container rates more than doubling since late-May to a record.Bulk-carrier costs have also rebounded from a four-year low. Maersk, whichidled about 20% of its capacity in April before gradually reinstating it insubsequent months, saw earnings beat estimates in part due to improved freightrates.
这已经转化为远洋班轮运输货物的成本增加，其中一个基准的跨太平洋集装箱运价自5月下旬以来翻了一番多，创下纪录。散货船成本也从四年低点反弹。马士基在4月份闲置了约20%的运力，随后几个月才逐步恢复，该公司盈利超出预期，部分原因是运费改善。
Big Ships, Small Ships
The offshore sector has seen demand for oilrigs and supply vessels hammered as energy prices remain low and there’s littleinterest in new exploration investments, said Leszczynski. It’s a “gamble” topurchase an oil tanker amid uncertainty over demand, he said. While oilconsumption has grown in the past two decades, climate change mitigationefforts are spurring market expectations that appetite will decline.
大船小船
Leszczynski表示，由于能源价格持续低迷，而且对新的勘探投资兴趣不大，海工行业对石油钻井平台和供应船的需求受到打击。他说，在需求不确定的情况下，购买油轮是一场 "赌博"。尽管石油消费在过去20年中有所增长，但缓解气候变化的努力正刺激市场预期，即需求将下降。
While the coronavirus adds to short-termuncertainty, there’s a better medium-to-long term outlook. Qatar signed a dealin June worth around $19 billion with South Korean shipbuilders for more than100 liquefied natural gas vessels, Maersk expects a progressive recovery involumes and port operator DP World said it’s positive on fundamentals.
虽然新型冠状病毒增加了短期的不确定性，但中长期前景较好。卡塔尔6月与韩国造船厂签署了价值约190亿美元的100多艘液化天然气船协议，马士基预计产量将逐步恢复，港口运营商DP World表示对基本面持积极态度。
The shipbuilding sector is set to remainsubdued for the next few years, with a revival possible eight to 10 years fromnow, said Leszczynski. Vessels built during the boom years of between 2007 and2010 will require replacement, as most have a lifespan of about 20 to 25 years,he said.
Leszczynski表示，未来几年造船业将保持低迷，8至10年后可能出现复兴。他说，在2007年至2010年繁荣时期建造的船舶将需要更换，因为大多数船舶的寿命约为20至25年。
海运圈聚焦编译自gcaptain网站（报道：Krystal Chia和Annie Lee）
