2022-04-29
533 BIMCO Shipping Number of the Week
Russia-China dirty tanker trade soars 94% y/y after Ukraine invasion
China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and Russia is the second largest crude exporter. Much of the crude oil trade between the two countries, however, is piped and the short distance from Far East Russia to China also limits the impact on demand for crude oil tankers. Still, a change in the Russia to China dirty trade has the potential to impact tanker tonne miles demand as it could come at the expense of longer trade lanes.
中国是全球最大原油进口国，俄罗斯是全球第二大原油出口国。然而，由于中俄间的大部分原油贸易通过管道运输，以及俄罗斯远东地区至中国的距离较短，限制了对原油油轮的需求。尽管如此，由于中俄原油贸易的变化可能需要更长的贸易通道，其仍有可能影响油轮吨英里需求。
“Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russia to China dirty tanker trade has soared 94% y/y measured in deadweight tonne miles,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO and adds: “this compares to a year-to-date increase of only 9% y/y prior to the invasion.”
BIMCO首席航运分析师Niels Rasmussen先生表示：“自俄乌冲突以来，中俄原油贸易载重吨英里同比飙升94%。相比之下，在冲突之前，年初至今仅增长9%。”
In comparison, total dirty tanker deadweight tonne miles exports from Russia, and imports to China, have risen 14% y/y and 4% y/y respectively since the invasion; highlighting how the Russia to China trade has increased in importance for both countries. Due to the demand spike in early 2020, which has not been repeated since, it should be noted that YTD 2022 deadweight tonne miles are trailing 2020 by 20%.
两相比较，自冲突以来，俄罗斯出口和中国进口的原油载重吨英里分别同比增长14%和4%，显示着中俄贸易对两国来说都更为重要。值得注意的是，由于2020年初原油需求达到了史上峰值，2022年至今的载重吨英里相比2020年下降20%。
“Accounting for 58% of the increase, it is particularly the relatively long Black Sea to China trade that has driven the overall increase in the post-invasion Russia to China dirty tanker trade,” says Rasmussen. He adds that “as deadweight tonne miles in the even longer Brazil to China trade has decreased 26% y/y during the same period it appears, however, that the shift in China’s import patterns has reduced average miles/tonne in the Chinese import trades which overall is a negative for the dirty tanker trade.”
Rasmussen先生表示："黑海至中国的贸易距离较长，在冲突后对推动中俄原油贸易的整体增长起到了主要作用，占总增长的58%。同期，虽然巴西至中国的贸易距离更长，但载重吨英里同比下降26%。中国进口模式的转变似乎减少了进口贸易的平均吨英里，总体上对原油贸易产生了消极影响。"
来源：BIMCO上海
