2021-03-29
618 After a turbulent year, low demand looks set to plague the market in the coming months combined with too many ships fighting for too few cargoes in both the crude oil and oil product segments.
经历了动荡的一年后，由于需求量低，以及原油和石油产品市场上船舶多、货物少，这两个因素将是未来几个月里油轮市场的难题。
Demand drivers and freight rates需求因素和运费
The realities of the pandemic are setting in for the tanker market. The record-breaking Q2 2020 is a distant memory and, instead, the market faces a slow recovery with low demand, stock drawdowns in consuming countries (with products already where they need to be and therefore not being transported by sea) and loss-making rates.
疫情正在影响油轮市场。2020年第2季度创的纪录已经是久远的记忆，与之相反，目前消费国需求下滑、股票下跌（因为产品已经就位，所以不需要海运），以及运费率的亏损，油轮市场复苏缓慢。
Perhaps the most notable example of this is on the benchmark Middle East Gulf to China trade where earnings (voyage revenue – voyage costs) have fallen from USD 250,354 per day in mid-March 2020 to USD -1,056 per day on 15 February; voyage revenues are so low they no longer cover voyage costs, let alone operating and financing costs.
也许，这一现象中最值得注意的例子就是中东海湾国家与中国之间的贸易基准，其收入（航次收入减去航次成本）从2020年3月中旬的250,354美元/日，降低至2021年2月15日的-1,056美元/日；航次收入低到无法承担航次成本，更不用说运营和融资成本。
Average earnings for the whole market are slightly better at USD 3,416 per day for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) on 12 February. But they are still far from what BIMCO estimates is needed to break even (USD 25,000 per day). Similarly, rates for Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers are far from their estimated break even point, earning just USD 8,767 per day and USD 3,803 per day respectively. One-year time charter rates are also failing to break even, meaning that some owners fixing ships on these now are accepting daily losses of a few thousand dollars for the next year. Only a few ships are taking these long-term loss-making rates, and are doing so simply because owners and operators believe this will minimise their losses, and that a year on the spot market will lead to bigger cuts to income.
整体上，油轮市场的平均收入有所好转。2月12日，特大型油轮（VLCC）的收入是3,416美元/日，但该收入水平与BIMCO预测的收支平衡（25,000美元/日）仍有很大差距。与之类似，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的收入分别是8,767美元/日和3,803美元/日，同样与他们的预计收支平衡点相距甚远。一年定期租船的运费率也没能保持收支平衡，意味着一些正在修理船舶的船东正担负着每天几千美元的损失，并将持续一年。只有一些船舶负担着这种长期的亏损运费率，仅仅因为船东和运营人认为这将使他们的损失最小化，而在现货市场上运营一年将会导致更大的收入削减。
石油产品油轮的收入也陷入远低于收支平衡点的泥沼。今年以来，LR2型油轮的平均收入只有4,201美元/日。轻便型船是目前为止表现最好的，收入为5,964美元/日，但也这并不值得庆祝。
When it comes to cargo demand, oil products were hit in different ways by the crisis; while some are already recovering, others have yet to see any meaningful upturn. Total EU seaborne imports of oil products ended 2020 down by 19.6%, with fuel oil performing the worst, plummeting 53.8% year on year. At the other end of the scale, gasoline imports – accounting for 10.9% of EU seaborne oil product imports –rose 5.1% to 17.4m tonnes. At almost half of total imports, gas oil imports fell to 77.7m tonnes (-11.4%).
就货物需求量而论，石油产品受到了疫情的不同冲击。一些已经在复苏，另一些尚且未有显著好转。欧盟的全部石油产品海运进口量在2020年末下降了19.6%，其中汽油的表现最差，与去年同期相比陡降53.8%。与之相反，占比欧盟海运石油产品进口10.9%的汽油进口，上涨5.1%，达到了1,740万吨。占将近海运进口量一半的柴油跌至7,770万吨，跌幅为11.4%。
与欧洲不同，中国的炼油厂生产量恢复速度很快，虽然在疫情初期下降，但到年末提高了3%，12月破纪录达到了6,000万吨。从出口精炼石油量下降了7.5%得以判断，是其国内需求推动了复苏。过去的一年里，中国原油进口量上升了7.3%，与2018年10%和2019年10%的增长量相比略有下降，但仍然显著超过全球其他国家或地区。
Towering above the total growth rate of 7.3%, Chinese crude oil imports from the US rose by 211.3% in 2020 compared with 2019, as Phase One of the US-China trade agreement meant an extra 13.4m tonnes of crude oil being sent across the world. Over the year, Chinese imports totalled 19.8m tonnes, leaving the US as the ninth biggest exporter of crude oil to China. This list is dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia from where China imported 84.9m tonnes and 83.6m tonnes, respectively. The two provide 31.1% of all Chinese crude oil imports.
比7.3%的总增长率更高的是2020年里中国从美国进口的原油量，比2019年增长了211.3%，这是由于中美贸易协定的第一阶段使额外1,340万吨的原油得以远洋运输。过去的一年里，中国总计从美国进口了1,980万吨原油，使美国成为中国的第九大原油出口商。在向中国出口原油的国家中，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯占据主导地位，中国分别从沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯进口了8,490万吨和8,360万吨原油。这两个国家供应了中国全部进口原油的31.1%。
In total, US crude oil exports rose by 6.3% in 2018, continuing the upward trend that began once the ban on crude oil exports was lifted at the end of 2015. This is a marked slowdown from the 52.5% growth in 2019 and 95.3% in 2020. Tonne per mile growth outperformed that of tonnes, coming in at 11.1%, as higher exports to Asia boosted sailing distances.
总体来看，美国原油出口量在2018年里上涨了6.3%，自2015年末原油出口禁令解除后一直保持上涨趋势。与2019年增长52.5%、2020年增长95.3%相比显著放缓。由于对亚洲更多的出口使航行距离加长，吨英里的增长超过吨位量的增长，为11.1%。
The many years of strong growth in US crude oil exports has provided much-needed demand for tanker shipping. This is especially the case when considering the much longer sailing distances between the US and the Far East – the largest import market – compared with that between the Middle East and Far East.
多年来美国原油出口量的强劲增长为油轮运输提供了急需的需求量。鉴于美国与最大的进口市场远东之间的航行距离相比中东和远东之间更长，情况更是如此。
Following the shocks of the past year, there are worrying clouds on the horizon for US crude oil exports. The country has higher production costs compared with the world’s other dominant producers, and 2020 has squeezed profit margins and investment. Oil-producing rigs in the US numbered 306 in mid-February – 372 fewer than a year earlier (source: Baker Hughes). This will limit growth in US crude production in coming years, especially if the oil price fails to rise further. That said, US crude oil production has not fallen by as much as the drop in number of rigs would suggest; average quality has increased, given that the worst-performing rigs are the first to be closed.
在去年的冲击下，美国原油出口的情况不容乐观。与世界上其他的主要生产商相比，美国的生产成本更高，2020年更是压缩了利润空间和投资额。2月中旬，美国有306个石油钻井，比去年同期减少了372个（数据来源：Baker Hughes）。这种情况将在未来几年内限制美国的原油产量，特别是石油价格不再上涨的话。也就是说，从美国原油产出量的下降程度没有石油钻井数量下降得那么严重可以看出：由于产量最差的石油钻井最早被关掉，所以原油的平均质量有所提高。
由于欧洲的新一轮封锁和全球旅行限令阻止了全球石油需求量的进一步复苏，炼油厂同样处境艰难。1月，美国炼油厂的平均生产量为1,460万桶/日，与2020年同期相比下降11.5%。美国炼油厂1月末的使用量为82.3%，比其最低点（66%-69%）有所恢复，但仍然低于疫情前的水平。需求量和盈利依旧萎靡，在疫情初期暂时停业的炼油厂已经永久关闭，这影响了原油输入需求。
US oil product export, which in some weeks at the end of 2020 were above levels in the same period of 2019, have begun the year 5.5% lower than in 2020 but are still up 2.1% from the start of 2019.
2020年末的几个星期里，美国石油产品出口量比2019年同期高，今年初比2020年低5.5%，但仍然比2019年初高出2.1%。
The recovery in US demand for oil products has been mixed because restrictions affect elements of demand in different ways. Petroleum product supplied was down by 11% in the last week of January 2021, compared with the same week in 2020. Gasoline was down 13%, and jet fuel fell 54.7%, after an uptick in the number of flight passengers over the holiday season came to an end. On 7 February, daily US flight passenger numbers were down by 62.4% compared with 2020.
美国石油产品需求量的复苏情形复杂，其源于限制令在多方面影响了需求量的决定因素。石油制品供应量在2021年1月的最后一周与2020年同期相比下降了11%。航班旅客数量在假期的小幅上涨结束后，汽油需求量下降了13%，航空煤油需求量下降了54.7%。2月7日，美国每日航班旅客数量相比2020年下降了62.4%。
Fleet news
船队新闻
At 2.5%, the oil product tanker fleet growth expected by BIMCO is on par with the 2.4% increase in the market experienced in 2020. Crude oil tanker fleet growth is expected to decline from 3.3% in 2020 to 1.5% in 2021, closing in on its low point of 0.9% advance in 2018.
BIMCO预计石油产品油轮船队规模将扩大2.5%，与2020年扩大2.4%的规模处于同等水平。2021年，BIMCO预计原油油轮船队的扩张规模将从2020年的3.3%下降为1.5%，接近其在2018年的最低增幅0.9%.
So far this year, 26 crude oil tankers have been delivered, totalling 3.7m dead weight tonnes (DWT), along with 16 oil product tankers with a combined capacity of 1.1m DWT. Over the year, BIMCO expects oil product tanker deliveries to reach 5.7m DWT, and crude oil tanker completions to fall from 18.7m DWT last year to 14.2m DWT this year.
今年以来，26艘原油油轮被交付使用，总载重吨（DWT）达370万；同时，16艘石油产品油轮被交付使用，总组合运力达到110万DWT。从全年来看，BIMCO预计石油产品油轮的交付量将达到570万DWT，原油油轮交付量将从去年的1,870万DWT下降到1,420万DWT。
从今年初开始，原油油轮和石油产品油轮的订单量下降，这是由于油轮的订单量（2.5万DWT）比交付量少，这显示两种船舶在油轮航运市场的前景和现状堪忧。
The poor market conditions are also starting to be reflected in tanker demolition activity. COSCO singled itself out in January by announcing that it was scrapping five VLCCs, three Suezmaxes, one Panamax and a Handysize tanker. This action alone brings crude oil tanker demolition so far in 2021 to levels comparable with those in the whole of 2020. Only four VLCC were demolished last year, along with three Suezmax, six Aframax and three Panamax ships. In all, 21 oil-product ships were scrapped in 2020.
糟糕的市场状态也开始从油轮的拆船活动中反映出来。COSCO格外突出，他们1月的公告称其正在拆解5艘巨型油轮、3艘苏伊士型油轮、1艘巴拿马型油船和1艘灵便型油船。单单是这一个行动就使2021年目前为止的拆船规模达到了可以和2020年整年相比的水平。2020年，一共有21艘成品油轮被拆解，其中只有4艘巨型油轮，其他的为3艘苏伊士型油轮、6艘阿芙拉型油轮和3艘巴拿马型油轮被拆解。
Over the year, BIMCO expects crude oil tanker demolitions to rise to around 7m DWT. Oil product tanker demolition, on the other hand, is expected to rise from 1m DWT in 2020 to 1.3m DWT in 2021.
BIMCO预计全年的原油油轮拆船量将达到700万DMT左右，另一方面，石油产品油轮2021年的拆船量将从2020年的100万DWT上升到130万DWT。
As well as rising demolitions, the poor outlook for oil tanker shipping is reflected in the resale value of second-hand ships. In January 2020, the average resale value for a five-year-old VLCC was USD 75.5 million; the average this year is USD 64.5m – a loss of USD 11m in 12 months. Values of second-hand oil product tanker ships have fallen slightly less, with a five-year-old LR1 losing just under 10% of its value over a year, from USD 32m to USD 29m (source: Intermodal).
与上升的拆船量相同，油轮市场的惨淡前景也在二手船买卖价格中显现出来。2020年1月里，1艘5年船龄巨型油轮的平均转售价格为7,550万美元，2020年全年均价为6,450万美元，12个月里下跌了1,100万美元。二手石油产品油轮的价格下降得稍微少一些，1艘5年船龄的LR1型船的转售价格在2020年下降了10%，从3,200万美元下降到2,900万美元（数据来源：Intermodal）。
Compared to a straight-line depreciation over 20 years, current VLCC values are between 10% and 20% lower, with a five-year-old VLCC closest to its straight depreciation value, and a 10-year-old ship the furthest away.
与过去20年的直线折旧价格相比，目前巨型油轮的价格比其低10%到20%，其中5年船龄的巨型油轮最接其直接折旧值，十年船龄的则差值最大。
Outlook
展望
The extended OPEC alliance (OPEC+), headed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, went through its ups and downs in 2020 and the frailties revealed by the oil price war do not seem to be easily overcome. In early January, the grouping announced that, while Russia would be increasing production in February and March, Saudi Arabia would voluntarily cut its production by 1 million bpd. The different approaches reflect the countries’ focuses, with Russia keen to limit growth in US market share and Saudi Arabia worried about production outpacing demand.
以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+联盟在2020年里经历了起起落落，而且石油价格战中暴露出的弱点不易克服。1月上旬，联盟宣布，俄罗斯将在2月和3月增加产量，与此同时，沙特阿拉伯则将自愿将其产量减少100万桶/日。不同的措施彰显着这两个国家的关注点：俄罗斯坚持限制美国的市场份额增长，沙特阿拉伯则担心供过于求。
For shipping, if Saudi Arabian exports to China are replaced by Russian crude oil, it is good news, because exports from the Black and Baltic seas have to cover a longer distance than exports from the Middle East.
如果沙特阿拉伯对中国的原油出口被俄罗斯取代的话，这对于航运业来说则是利好消息，因为从黑海和波罗的海出口到中国的航行距离比从中东到中国的更远。
当今年情况逐渐转好、全球原油需求量复苏，OPEC+联盟将难以平衡其主要石油生产国的生产份额和需求量。在其他国家正产出更多石油的同时，沙特阿拉伯又能自愿减少生产量多久？俄罗斯能接受的美国石油生产量水平又是多少？由2020年的状况可以看出，OPEC有确定原油价格和油轮航运需求量的能力，这将是OPEC+联盟今年如何面对艰难抉择关键因素。
In February 2021, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that OPEC produced 24.8m bpd, 3.2m bpd lower than in February 2020. This is a clear indication that global oil demand is yet to see a strong recovery, and with many of the already widespread travel restrictions being tightened in response to new virus mutations and slow vaccine programmes in many countries, the recovery looks to be many months away.
2021年2月，美国能源信息管理局（EIA）预计OPEC组织的石油生产量为2,480万桶/日，比2020年2月减少320万桶/日。新一轮病毒变异和缓慢的疫苗推广导致多个国家施行旅行限令，这是全球石油需求量还不能强劲复苏的明确迹象，距离全球石油需求量复苏仍遥遥无期。
In fact, the EIA estimates that it will take until Q3 2022 for global oil demand to be back at Q4-2019 levels, with 2021 demand coming in at 97.8m bpd. This is an increase of 5.6m bpd from 2020, but still down 3.4m bpd from 2019.
事实上，EIA预计全球石油需求量将到2022年第3季度才能恢复到2019年第4季度的水平，2021年的全球石油需求量将达到9,780万桶/日,这比2020年高出560万桶/日，但仍比2019年低340万桶/日。
The slow recovery in global oil demand means many months of hardship ahead for tanker shipping, with too many ships fighting for too few cargoes – unless something unexpected once again rattles the market.
全球石油需求量的缓慢复苏及“船多货少”的状况意味着油轮运输业还将经历漫长的艰难困苦，除非意外发生刺激市场。
来源： BIMCO上海
