2020-08-10
758 
European outright refined product prices hit 5-month highs amid mixed fundamental
Outright prices
for several European products firmed to five-month highs on Aug. 5, led higher
by moves in the underlying energy complex.
海运圈聚焦8约10日讯 8月5日，在相关能源综合体走势的带动下，几种欧洲产品的直销价格升至五个月高点。
The front-month
ICE low sulfur gasoil futures contract, which underlies the European
distillates markets, was assessed by S&P Global Platts at $388/mt, the
highest level since March 6, when Platts assessed the contract at $413/mt as
energy prices collapsed in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
标普尔全球普氏指数评估，作为欧洲馏分油市场基础的ICE低硫汽油期货近月合约价格为388美元/吨，为3月6日以来最高水平，当时普氏指数评估该合约的价格为413美元/吨，因为新型冠状病毒危机后能源价格暴跌。
The latest rise
was mostly down to moves in the crude oil market, which rose following bullish
US stocks data released on Aug. 5.
最新的上涨主要归因于原油市场的走势，该市场在8月5日发布的美国股市看涨之后上涨。
At 11:40 am
London time (1040 GMT) Aug. 6, the front-month ICE Brent October crude futures
was trading at around $45/b, down 17 cents/b from the Aug. 5 settle of
$45.17/b, a five month high for the front-month contract.
伦敦时间8月6日上午11:40(格林威治时间1040)，ICE布伦特10月原油期货价45美元/桶左右，较8月5日结算价45.17美元/桶下跌17美分/桶，为前月合约的五个月高点。
US commercial
crude oil inventories decreased by 7.4 million barrels to a total of 518.6
million barrels in the week ended July 31, according to the weekly inventory
report released Aug. 5 by the Energy Information Administration.
据美国能源信息署8月5日公布的周度库存报告显示，截至7月31日当周，美国商业原油库存减少740万桶，至5.186亿桶。
This comes despite
fears that demand could be stymied by rising cases of coronavirus.
尽管人们担心需求可能因新型冠状病毒病例上升而受阻。
While demand for
oil products has been recovering, fears remain over a resurgence in coronavirus
cases across Europe, with several regions that have relaxed lockdown measures
now seeing a spike in cases again.
虽然油品需求已经恢复，但欧洲各地新型冠状病毒病例再次出现的担忧依然存在，几个已经放松封锁措施的地区现在又出现了病例激增。
One trader also
pointed to the potential for the rising outright prices to weigh on distillate
product demand, as end-users are dissuaded from buying.
一位贸易商还指出，直接价格上涨有可能打压馏分油产品需求，因为最终用户不愿购买。
“There is very
little demand at the moment, with higher flat prices. I expect demand to be hit
even further,” the trader said.
"目前需求非常少，平价较高。我预计需求将进一步受到打击。"该贸易商表示。
Typically,
demand for some products can be hit by rising outright prices, with demand for
some products more sensitive to price moves than others.
通常情况下，一些产品的需求会受到直接价格上涨的打击，一些产品的需求对价格走势比其他产品更敏感。
RECOVERY IN
DIESEL DEMAND
柴油机需求回升
Diesel is
usually relatively resilient to changes in outright price, compared with other
products, with demand remaining tied to economic activity.
与其他产品相比，柴油通常对直接价格的变化具有相对的弹性，需求仍然与经济活动挂钩。
Diesel demand
has been picking up across European countries, despite fears of a potential
resurgence of coronavirus. Overall, demand for road fuels in European countries
strongly ramped up after the lifting of lockdowns and easing of travel
restrictions.
尽管担心新型冠状病毒可能卷土重来，但欧洲各国的柴油需求一直在回升。总体而言，在解除封锁和放松旅行限制后，欧洲国家对道路燃料的需求强劲上升。
Consumption of
diesel in particular was reported to have reached between 75% and 95% of last
year’s level in July, in the wake of plunging demand when lockdowns were
imposed in March.
据报道，继3月份实施禁运后，柴油的需求量急剧下降，7月份的消耗量尤其达到去年水平的75%至95%。
In Turkey,
however, diesel demand was even higher year-on-year. Turkish diesel demand in
July rose 7.5% year on year to 1.965 billion liters, energy ministry data
showed.
然而，在土耳其，柴油需求同比甚至更高。能源部数据显示，土耳其7月柴油需求同比增长7.5%，至19.65亿升。
The increase is
below the 8.2% reported in June, but still a stark contrast to the fall of
27.7% in May, when travel restrictions were still in place.
该增幅低于6月份报告的8.2%，但与5月份27.7%的跌幅仍形成鲜明对比，当时5月份出行限制仍然存在。
In the 10 ppm
diesel barge market, “demand is still there, a bit weaker than this time last
year — sufficient demand,” one barge trader said.
"在10ppm柴油驳船市场，需求仍然存在，比去年这个时候稍弱，但需求充足。"一位驳船贸易商称。
“Overall the
first two decades in July, diesel demand in France was down a little year on
year,” the trader added.
该贸易商补充道，"总的来说前二十年的7月份，法国的柴油需求同比下降了一些。"
“There is no
problem for supply, freight is down a lot due to weak demand and Rhine water
levels should be rising, due to heavy rain in Switzerland. Barges are loading
70-80% [due to Rhine water levels at present]. We weren’t expecting such a low
freight rate,” the trader said.
"供应没有问题，由于需求疲软，货运下降了很多，由于瑞士的大雨，莱茵河水位应该会上升。驳船装货量为70-80%[由于目前莱茵河水位的原因]。我们没有想到运费会这么低。"该贸易商说。
HEATING OIL
DEMAND POOR
取暖油需求不佳
Looking at the
gasoil market, the 0.1% CIF Northwest Europe cargo increased $16.50/mt on the
day to $386.75/mt on Aug. 5, the highest since March 6, Platts data shows.
从天然气油市场来看，普氏数据显示，8月5日，，价格为0.1%的西北欧洲货物到岸价每公吨上涨16.50美元，至386.75美元，为3月6日以来的最高水平。
Demand for
heating oil is particularly price-elastic, especially in summer, sources said.
消息人士称，取暖油需求的价格弹性特别大，尤其是在夏季。
Nonetheless,
demand in Northwest Europe has been very poor since the beginning of July after
the buying spree in the spring, when first a low price environment and then a
deep contango incentivized buying of 0.1% gasoil and 50 ppm volumes. Most of
the heating oil bought in the spring went into stocks, and storage of heating
oil in the region is mostly full.
尽管如此，自7月初以来，欧洲西北部地区的需求在春季的购买狂潮之后一直非常低迷，当时先是低价环境，然后是深层的期货升水激励了0.1%的汽油和50ppm量的购买。春季买入的取暖油大部分进入了库存，该地区取暖油的储存量也基本满仓。
JET FUEL DEMAND
ON THE RISE
喷气燃料需求上升
CIF NWE jet fuel
cargoes rose $16.75/mt on the day to a four-month high of $366.50/mt on Aug. 5,
with CIF cargoes assessed at a $21.50/mt discount to the front-month ICE LSGO
futures contract, down from a $21/mt discount the previous day. The last time
CIF NWE jet cargoes were assessed higher was March 11, when they were assessed
at $382/mt, Platts data shows.
8月5日，CIF NWE航油货物当天上涨16.75美元/吨，至4个月高点366.50美元/吨，CIF货物对前月ICE LSGO期货合约的评估为折价21.50美元/吨，低于前一天的折价21美元/吨。普氏数据显示，上一次CIF西北欧航空公司的喷气飞机货物评估较高是3月11日，当时为382美元/吨。
On the positive
side, global flying capacity increased 4.3% on the week to 60 million seats for
the week starting Aug. 3, but this is still almost 50% less than a year before,
aviation information provider OAG said.
航空信息提供商OAG表示，从积极的一面来看，8月3日开始的一周，全球飞行运力增加了4.3%，达到6000万个座位，但这仍比一年前减少了近50%。
According to
OAG, western Europe benefited from the strongest weekly growth, with a 15%
increase and the addition of 1.524 million seats, bringing the total capacity
for the current week to around 12 million seats.
根据OAG的数据，西欧地区受益于最强劲的周度增长，增长15%，新增152.4万个座位，使本周总运力达到约1200万个座位。
Easyjet now
expects to increase flight capacity to 40% of pre-coronavirus planned capacity
in the fourth quarter of its October-September fiscal year, up from the 30%
forecast at the end of June, the UK-listed low-cost airline said in a trading
update Aug. 4.
这家英国上市的低成本航空公司8月4日在交易更新中表示，目前，Easyjet预计将在10月至9月财年第四季度将飞行能力提高到新型冠状病毒前计划容量的40％，高于6月底预测的30％。
In addition, jet
and kerosene inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub slipped
4.8% week on week to 937,000 mt as of July 29, according to Insights Global
data released July 30.
此外，根据Insights
Global 7月30日公布的数据，截至7月29日，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普交易中心的喷气机和煤油库存周环比下滑4.8%，至93.7万公吨。
However,
long-haul flight capacity from Europe remains limited, hampering any real
recovery in jet fuel demand.
然而，来自欧洲的长途航班运力仍然有限，阻碍了喷气燃料需求的任何真正恢复。
Virgin Atlantic
warned a UK court on Aug. 5 that cash flow would drop to critical levels by the
middle of next month and it would run out of money altogether by the week
beginning Sept. 28, according to media reports.
据媒体报道，维珍大西洋航空公司8月5日向英国一家法院发出警告，称下月中旬现金流将降至临界水平，到9月28日开始的一周内将完全耗尽资金。
The airline,
which is specialized in long-haul international routes departing from the UK,
filed for chapter 15 of the US bankruptcy code in New York on Aug. 4 as part of
a process to protect its assets from US creditors while it seeks to finalize a
rescue plan in the UK.
这家专门从事从英国出发的长途国际航线的航空公司于8月4日在纽约申请美国破产法第15章，这是保护其资产不受美国债权人侵害的过程的一部分，同时它还在英国寻求最终确定救援计划。
Meanwhile, the
forward curve for jet fuel prices has been weighed down by expectations that
jet fuel demand would lag for many months if not years to come. The year one
jet fuel swap, now Cal 2021 hit a fresh record low of $12.50/mt on August 5,
the lowest level seen since Platts started assessing the contract in 2001.
同时，航空燃料价格的前向曲线因预期航空燃料需求将滞后数月（甚至数年）而被压低。一年的喷气燃料互换，即现在的Cal 2021在8月5日创下12.50美元/吨的新低，这是普氏2001年开始评估该合约以来的最低水平。
GASOLINE DEMAND
RECOVERY FALTERS
汽油需求复苏受阻
After rising to
the highest levels since the start of the pandemic to be assessed around the
$400/mt mark for much of July, European gasoline prices have plateaued, and
showed signs of retreating at the start of August.
欧洲汽油价格在7月的大部分时间里升至自疫情开始以来的最高水平，约400美元/吨左右，之后趋于平稳，并在8月初出现回落迹象。
Eurobob FOB AR
barge outright prices have averaged $378.50/mt during in the two weeks to Aug.
6, down from $389/mt in the preceding two-week period from July 9-23.
在截至8月6日的两周内，欧标FOB AR驳船直销价格平均为378.50美元/吨，低于此前7月9-23日两周内的389美元/吨。
Sources in the
market had earlier anticipated a more robust recovery in gasoline demand in
August, with demand expected to return to close to pre-pandemic levels.
However, weaker sentiment in some key export markets and concerns over rising
virus cases in Europe have weighed on sentiment.
市场上的消息人士早前曾预计，8月份汽油需求将有更强劲的复苏，预计需求将恢复到接近疫情发生前的水平。然而，一些关键出口市场情绪疲软，以及对欧洲病毒病例上升的担忧打压了市场情绪。
Gasoline stocks
have continued to build, with Insights Global data showing a 4.9% rise in ARA
gasoline stocks in the week to July 30, and a 5% rise in the preceding week to
July 23.
汽油库存持续增加，Insights
Global数据显示，截至7月30日当周，ARA汽油库存上升4.9%，截至7月23日的前一周上升5%。
West Africa is a
key outlet for excess European gasoline stocks. But buying demand in Nigeria
was lower than expected in July, as poor blending margins deterred suppliers
into the market. Data intelligence company Kpler showed that exports to Nigeria
from Northwest Europe in July rose by just 5% on the month, to 5.26 million
barrels. The US is also an export market for gasoline from Northwest Europe,
and data from the EIA has pointed to a weakening demand outlook, and rising
gasoline stocks. EIA data shows that gasoline exports from Northwest Europe to
the Atlantic Coast were 50% lower on the week to Aug. 6, at 860,000 barrels.
西非是欧洲汽油库存过剩的重要出口。但7月份尼日利亚的购买需求低于预期，因为调和利润不佳，使供应商不敢进入市场。数据情报公司Kpler显示，7月份西北欧对尼日利亚的出口量仅环比增长5%，至526万桶。美国也是西北欧汽油的出口市场，EIA的数据指出，需求前景减弱，汽油库存上升。EIA数据显示，截至8月6日当周，西北欧至大西洋沿岸的汽油出口量减少50%，为86万桶。
This may
continue to exert some downward pressure on prompt and forward contracts, or
keep a lid on gains in outright prices in European gasoline markets.
这可能会继续对即期和远期合约造成一定的下行压力，或抑制欧洲汽油市场直销价格的涨幅。
In a further
sign of a more bearish outlook, the front-month gasoline crack spread has
retreated from an average of $4.22/b in July, to $1.20/b on Aug. 5.
进一步显示出更多的看跌前景，前月汽油裂解价差已从7月份的平均4.22美元/桶回落至8月5日的1.20美元/桶。
NAPHTHA DEMAND
WEAKENING
NAPHTHA需求减弱
European naphtha
outright prices had seen a downward correction recently, incorporating
information on loss of demand due to petrochemicals producers maximizing
propane utilization rates since the beginning of July against naphtha on a wide
price differential.
欧洲石脑油直销价格近期曾出现下调，纳入7月初以来石化生产商最大化丙烷利用率对石脑油造成的需求损失信息，价格差距较大。
CIF NWE naphtha
closed at $371/mt on Aug. 5, down 1.8% on the week with the crude oil
complex-induced volatility also having an impact on the market. Although
naphtha will continue seeing marginal support for any additional increase in
feedstocks demand, a switch back was not expected soon despite a narrowing
premium to propane.
8月5日，CIF西北地区石脑油收于371美元/吨，本周下跌1.8%，原油综合体引起的波动也对市场产生影响。尽管石脑油将继续看到任何额外的原料需求增长的边际支撑，但尽管与丙烷的溢价收窄，预计不会很快回调。
Over the past
week, the CIF NWE front-month naphtha contract against the equivalent propane
contract declined 39% to close at $45/mt on Aug. 5.
过去一周，8月5日，CIF NWE前月石脑油合约对等价丙烷合约下跌39%，收于45美元/吨。
Supply remained
stable, with limited runs across Europe and limited exports for August expected
from out of Russia.
供应保持稳定，欧洲各地运行量有限，预计8月份俄罗斯以外的出口量有限。
海运圈聚焦编译自普氏能源
